Thursday, November 17, 2011

State of the Union November 17, 2011

Nov. 17, 2011

Next week’s daily schedule will be no longer than 9 hours each day. We also have received the tentative production schedules for January and February. For the first week of January, the first day back is Tuesday, Jan. 3, and the start times for both shifts will be 6 am. This will be a 10.6 hour day. Wednesday, Jan. 4, the second shift employees will start 12 pm noon. These shifts will be 10.7 hours. Thursday, Jan. 5, second shift will start again at noon. These shifts will be 10.7 hours. There will be no production Friday due to the holiday on Monday. The second week the shifts will be split and the schedule will be 4-10 hour days with Friday the 13th off. The third week has the Martin Luther King holiday on Monday the 16th and we will work 10.6, 10.7 and 10.7 Tuesday through Thursday with Friday off. The fourth week is 5-10 hour days. February is all 10-hour days with three Fridays scheduled for production and one off – the 10th. As usual this is subject to change.

From Forbes: As birthdays go, this one was pretty lousy. On Nov. 9, just a week before the first anniversary of its return as a public company, General Motors warned investors that deteriorating economic conditions in Europe would hurt fourth-quarter results. GM said profit would be flat compared with last year and it would not achieve its target to break even in Europe for the period. A marketwide selloff over the European debt crisis that day didn't help, but shares of GM, which reported a solid $2.2 billion (EBIT) profit for the third quarter--its seventh profitable quarter in a row--took a particularly bad beating, falling 11%. Then on Nov. 11 shares plunged again--but later recovered--on news that a Chevrolet Volt caught fire after a government crash test. It was nothing new for the new GM, which went public at $33, peaked a little over $39 in January and now trades for about $22. The fact that the U.S. Treasury still owns a huge chunk of GM--about 32%--doesn't help. Nor do memories of the taxpayer bailout or decades of substandard cars. Yet there's a lot going right at GM, and it's all easy to overlook. Profit margins in North America and China, the world's two largest auto markets, are 10%, among the best in the industry, even though sales volumes, at least in the U.S., are still at depressed levels. Imagine what GM's North American profit will look like when car sales recover. Its balance sheet is healthy, with $33 billion in cash and just $4 billion in debt. Its U.S. labor costs are now competitive. Its unfunded pension liability has shrunk by half in the past year, due to cash and stock contributions and GM's "de-risking" of its pension investment portfolio. Most important, GM is turning out some impressive cars that are fetching higher prices, which bodes well for the future. If the Chevrolet Sonic doesn't change your mind about GM, nothing will.

This sporty 40 mpg subcompact is not only a huge leap ahead of the Chevy Aveo it replaces, but it's also perhaps the best car in a very tough segment, which includes the Honda Fit, Ford Fiesta and Hyundai Accent, all great cars. The Sonic comes on the heels of the new Chevy Cruze and Buick Regal, both of which have been well received. The compact Buick Verano, another impressive car to drive, is hitting showrooms now. Next year GM has more promising vehicles in the pipeline, including a new Chevrolet Malibu sedan, the compact Cadillac ATS and the full-size Cadillac XTS. Since bankruptcy GM has also managed to be disciplined when it comes to discounts and incentives. GM's incentive spending, as a percentage of average transaction price, was about 9.8% in the third quarter, only slightly above the industry average. Through the first nine months of the year about $1.2 billion in profit can be attributed directly to better pricing. If GM can continue to hold the line, transaction prices should stay strong and add to profitability.

Ford CEO Alan Mulally, in an interview with Automotive News, was asked a question about whether the Ford Ranger would get a reprieve given GM’s announcement to build and sell the Colorado here. His answer: “We don't have any plans for it now. The market segment is really small. Most people were in it for fuel efficiency in a smaller vehicle. Now we have a fantastic offering of small and medium-sized cars and utilities, so we essentially have what the customers say they really want and value.”

From the Detroit News: The Obama administration said Wednesday its proposal to nearly double auto fuel efficiency standards to 54.5 mpg by 2025 will cost the auto industry $157.3 billion. The new rules will save more than $1.7 trillion at the pump, the administration said, and have net benefits of $252 billion to $358 billion. Off the additional costs to the auto industry, an estimated $113 billion will go to boost passenger car fuel economy and $44 billion to improve light truck mileage. The proposal will boost the cost of an average car in 2025 by $2,023 and light trucks by $1,578. Costs could be as high as $2,800, however, under a different forecasting analysis, the administration said. The plan, it says, will have other benefits, including saving motorists time at the gas pump, because they'll be fueling up less often. The fewer trips are worth $10 billion or more in saved time. Less gas also means less fuel tax revenue — about $50 billion — and the government will have to figure out how to replace revenue for road repairs. The Obama administration said it chose not to forecast whether the new rules and higher costs will cause auto sales to rise or fall. Margo Oge, EPA's director of the Office of Transportation & Air Quality, predicted the regulations would have a "modest" impact on sales. "This regulation gambles that millions of consumers will be able to afford thousands more for generally smaller, more expensive vehicles that may not meet their needs," said the National Automobile Dealers Association, which notes that, including efficiency hikes for 2011-2016, the overall new car prices will actually be about $3,000 higher by 2025. Complying with the proposed fuel requirements, the government estimates, will cost General Motors Co. $37.8 billion, Ford Motor Co. $29.4 billion, the Chrysler-Fiat alliance $9.7 billion and Toyota Motor Corp. $23.2 billion. Estimates are $15.3 billion for Honda Motor Co., $15 billion for Nissan Motor Co., $8.2 billion for Hyundai Motor Co. and $4.1 billion for its Kia unit. The rules go easier on SUVs and pickups than on cars. These light trucks must improve fuel efficiency by 3.5 percent annually between 2017-21, compared to 5 percent each year for cars. A steep fall-off in full-size SUV sales is expected — from 3.3 percent of vehicles sold in 2016 to 0.63 percent in 2025.

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